The Drama of the Champions League
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
UEFA, the Union of European Football Associations, is the governing body that oversees soccer for all of Europe. In 1955 they introduced the European Cup, or properly it was known as the European Champion Clubs' Cup, and it welcomed the top team from each country's league to compete. Jump forward to 1992, the tournament is changed and rebranded to what it is today.
Participation in the Champions League is for top teams from across Europe, but not just one for each country, the distribution is based on the strength of the countries in FIFA's rankings. Twenty six teams were inserted directly into the group stage based on their finish in their home leagues. Fifty three others put into the tournament to earn one of the remaining 6 slots.
Three of this year's Champions League semifinal teams were among those immediately placed into the group stage: Barcelona, Liverpool, and Tottenham. Only one had to earn their way up. That was Ajax.
Ajax is one of the teams from Eredivisie, the top league of the Netherlands. They are a storied club in Europe and they have had success in the Champions League in the past, having won it four times, the most recent one being 24 years ago, 1995. Last season they finished second behind PSV Eindhoven. Due to this, Ajax were forced to enter this year's Champions League during the second qualifying round. There they defeated Sturm Graz, the Austrian football club, 5-1. Ajax then advanced to the third qualifying round where they defeated the Belgian club, Standard Liege, 5-2. In the Playoff round they faced Dynamo Kyiv of Ukraine, defeating them 3-1. They had to win three matches before Barça, Tottenham and Manchester City, the other semifinalists, even joined the tournament.
In the group stage, four teams in each group play each opponent twice. The best two overall records in the group advance to the knockout stage, the third place team gets inserted into the Europa cup, and the fourth place team goes home.
Tottenham and Barcelona were put into the same group. Barcelona dominated Tottenham in their matches, but Tottenham did well enough that both teams were able to advance out of their group over Milan's Internazionale and PSV Eindhoven.
Liverpool were in a group with the French powerhouse Paris Saint Germaine, Italy's Napoli and the Serbian team Red Star Belgrade. Liverpool and PSG advanced to knockouts.
Ajax were put into a group with the German juggernaut Bayern Munich, Portugal's Benfica, and the Greek AEK Athens. Ajax did very well, overall drawing with Bayern 3-3 across their two games, and having a winning record against the other two teams. Both Bayern and Ajax advanced to the knockouts
In the knockouts, the story of the quarterfinals was the elimination of the reigning champions, Real Madrid, at the hands of Ajax. It's been a tough year from Real Madrid, forcing them to bring back Zinedine Zidane as their coach after a struggling season in their domestic league. In the first leg, Real Madrid won 2-1 at home but the trip to the Netherlands was the stuff of nightmares for the Spanish club as Ajax dominated 4-1.
Ajax though did not find their road easier from there as they met Juventus. Going from Ronaldo's previous club to his current one. Unlike Real Madrid, Juventus has had a fairly good season. Perhaps not as dominant as they would have hoped, but still dominant. Surely Ajax had finally reached the end of their story in this year's Champions League...
And here I remind you they are named for Ajax the Great, the son of King Telamon, and a towering warrior hero in the Trojan war mythology.
Ajax's journey in the Champions league was again atop the headlines as they vanquished Ronaldo and Juventus this week while on the road in Italy, having held them to a 1-1 draw at home, and then they manage to win 2-1 in Torino. An upset in the truest sense of the word.
Not to be outdone though, perhaps in the most dramatic and exciting game in the tournament's history, was this week when Tottenham faced Manchester City. Manchester City are considered to be the best club in the world according to 538's global soccer club rankings.
I think it is fair to say: Tottenham was expected to lose this game.
One of their stars, Harry Kane, has been out injured. But even with him they would still be outgunned. And yet, saying that, Tottenham had managed a 1-0 victory at home last week thanks to Hugo Lloris, their keeper, stopping a penalty kick by Sergio Aguero, which would have tied it up.
So, traveling to Manchester City's stadium, they are up 1-0. In the first 20 minutes of their second game both team score 2 goals, bringing the aggregate to 3-2 Tottenham. In the 21st minute, Raheem Sterling scores a goal to put Manchester City even on aggregate, 3-3. But Manchester City need to score one more, because Tottenham has the advantage on away goals. It was the 59th minute when Sergio Aguero puts Manchester City ahead.
Now, I need you to understand, these games take place during midday for those of us on the west coast. I watched the majority of it during lunch but I had to stop as I had a post-lunch meeting. And so I had to follow it via social media.
In the 73rd minute, Fernando Llorente scores a contentious goal which takes VAR to verify, but that goal puts Tottenham back in the lead. Then in extra time Raheem Sterling scored a goal which would have sealed it for City, only to have it ruled offside in the build up. Brutal for City and its fans, but the game has become an instant classic of the tournament.
There are stories for each of these teams, I've touched on Ajax and Tottenham, who face off in the semifinals. Across from them Liverpool and Barcelona will meet.
Barcelona is the club of Messi, a player who inexplicably has people argue whether he's the best player currently playing the game or not. Liverpool are coached by Jurgen Klopp and have the Egyptian footballer Mohammed Sallah. Both Barcelona and Liverpool have won the Champions League five times. Liverpool having won it most recently in 2005, Barcelona in 2015. In this matchup, I favor Barcelona to win on the back of a solid defense and another godly performance from Leo Messi.
The only team among these final four not to have won the Champions League in their history is Tottenham. They face Ajax, and the question becomes can Ajax continue their run or can Tottenham push their way into the finals this year?
I cannot wait for the games in two weeks, this is the peak of club soccer drama out of Europe.
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My 2019 MLS Predictions
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
Trying to predict the future is a loser's game. - Ken Liu
You know the beauty of playing a loser's game? One that's rigged and no one expects you to get right? Like, predicting the end of an MLS season?
If I'm wrong, well, of course I was. But... if I end up being right, then I look like a genius. It's why TV talking heads love to make predictions. But, unlike them, I'm just a random fan not some professional analyst. So, I've got nothing to lose. Let's do it!
MLS Cup Winner
LAFC - They joined the league last year and ended up getting to 3rd in the West. Based on the start of this season, how Carlos Vela looks, I think they are going to win it all - even over my Seattle Sounders.
Supporter's Shield
Seattle Sounders FC - Look. I might just be swallowed up in the hope and excitement of an undefeated start to our season, but the Sounders look truly scary offensively and once the defense solidifies in the post Ozzie era, the team could set a new league record for points.
US Open Cup
DC United - Wayne Rooney and Luciano Acosta are something to behold this year and I have a feeling DC United will find themselves sitting atop the Lamar Hunt Open Cup.
Cascadia Cup
Seattle Sounders FC - I mean... look at the league standings. I might feel different next week after Seattle heads up to Vancouver, but for now, this seems obvious.
MVP
Carlos Vela - I have always been a Carlos Vela fan. His arrival in the MLS has been very exciting and what I have seen thus far this season he is the key to LAFC this season. If he continues to excel, so shall the team. But I worry if he fails, so will the team. And that has the makings of an MVP season.
Comeback Player
Jordan Morris - 3 goals already this season, looking fast and threatening on the wing. He had a disappointing sophomore slump and then a year long recovery from an injury which has ended countless careers. Let's see how the season ends, but I don't think this is a hard sell.
Golden Boot
Wayne Rooney - Rumors float of Acosta being highly wanted in Europe, if he leaves then DC United will lean on Rooney even more. The Manchester United legend has shown his class and his ability, I won't be shocked if he makes his mark this season.
Defender of the Year
Graham Zusi - This one is tough and honestly of all of these wild guesses, I feel least confident about this one. But Aaron Long won it last year. Chad has won it three times and if the Sounders are as dominant in awards as I think they will be this year, I think Chad might be overlooked again unless he is truly dominant.
Keeper of the Year
Stefan Frei - Zack Steffen won it last year despite Frei deserving it in nearly every category of statistics for goalkeeping, sure he had a good season but... Frei was better. The league screwed up and Frei has reached the point where he just doesn't care about the award anymore. And that's bad news for the league because he is going to stand on his head this season purely for himself and for the team.
Coach of the Year
Alan Koch - Cincinnati have come out and competed better than I think anyone expected. At this point, so long as they finish upper middle table or better, I think Koch gets this.
Tweet of the Year
I think this goes to the one and only Clint Dempsey with his early entry to the competition:
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Can the Sounders go 10-0?
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
The Sounders are 3-0 and Schmetzer wants to go 10-0 to start the season, is it possible? Let's talk about it.
Pictured: 1998 LA Galaxy team photo. Featuring Cobi Jones and Greg Vanney to name a few.
In terms of MLS history, the record winning streak is 15 by the LA Galaxy in 1998. Now, you can't really take that as a comparable achievement to modern day MLS. Because in 1998 there were no draws in MLS. Every game ended in a win or a loss thanks to the shootout rules they used to employ. In "modern day" the record holder is... well this is awkward, the Seattle Sounders right now, with 8 consecutive wins since September 29, 2018.
Starting this season 10-0 would put us at 15 consecutive wins which would be an unheard of feat in the MLS (though, not elsewhere in the world.) It would be a record likely to stand for years to come. Can the Sounders invent doing it in the modern MLS era?
Cincinnati, Colorado and Chicago down. 3-0 so far this season. Let's look at the schedule coming up.
March 30 - At Vancouver
Historically the Sounders lead the series in Vancouver. The Whitecaps have only won when Seattle comes to town 3 times. The last time being back in 2017 when they won 2-1 (I was at that game, sadly.) Vancouver does not look good right now, they have to figure out their team. They, along with the Sounders, have next week off to try and right the ship. Can they be prepared for the Sounders offense? I don't think so. 4-0.
April 6 - Vs. Real Salt Lake
RSL just got thrashed 5-0 by DC United after having two players sent off. Mike Petke is at the helm of a struggling club and he has to figure out how to turn them around. Historically, Seattle does very well vs. RSL at home. They lead the series 8-2-3, though the last time RSL came to visit Saucedo gave them their win on a beautiful volley. This loss was in the midst of our dark period of last season when everyone, including Will Bruin, was out injured. Regardless, in current forms, I am confident that Seattle will win this. 5-0.
April 10 - At Colorado
A midweek game on the road. Colorado will be looking for revenge after they lost to us in Seattle. Winning on the road is hard in MLS so every away game is going to be tough, but I just don't see Tim Howard and the Colorado defense being able to withstand the Sounders offense again. And don't forget the confidence the team will be playing with if they have begun the season 5-0, they are going to be hungry for goals. I think this is a win, and puts us up to 6-0.
April 13 - Vs. Toronto FC
Third game in 8 days, with a jaunt to Colorado in the middle. The team is going to be tired. They are going to have to stand up to their arch rivals, the zombified corpse of the greatest MLS team ever. It's honestly the first game of the season I am truly concerned about. Toronto are undefeated in MLS games and Toronto loves beating Seattle, and Toronto won't have had a midweek game. So, we'll see, but this is where I think our streak comes to an end. 6-1.
April 21 - At LAFC
Thankfully the team has a week off to rest and recover, otherwise this game could be ugly. LAFC scare me. Carlos Vela scares me. Bob Bradley is one of the keenest tactical minds in US soccer, he scares me. I will be thrilled to leave this game with a draw. 6-1-1.
April 24 - Vs. San Jose
Almeyda is trying to fix a broken club but we are on short rest and depending how brutal the game in LAFC is we might rest starters and give San Jose a window of opportunity against us. That said, as long as two of our four attackers play, and the defense stays intact, I predict Seattle wins. 7-1-1.
April 28 - Vs. LAFC
As if facing them as part of a 3-game week wasn't enough, we get to face them twice in a week and they don't have a third game in the middle. This one could be rough, but I trust the home field advantage to carry us through. 8-1-1.
So, that's it. The schedule just doesn't play in our favor to make the 10-0 dream a real possibility. Should we try for it? Absolutely. If we try for 10-0 and fail, but doing so starts us even close to it, getting 25 of 30 points, that will be truly remarkable and put us on track to win the Supporter's Shield this season.
But who knows, maybe we can get to 10-0.
World Record for Win Streaks
As a brief digression, I went looking for club win streak records. I was curious how would our theoretical 15 game win streak compare to other leagues in the world?
Turns out the longest winning streak ever is held by the Czech team, AC Sparta Prague. From 1920-1923 they won 51 games in a row. 51 games in a row is an unbelievable feat and speaks to the era of imbalance in the Czech league. Not even Bayern Munich has managed that.
But, to be fair, Bayern did get 19 consecutive wins during a 53 game unbeaten streak, 46 wins and 7 draws, back in 2013-2014. Oh Bayern.
A sixteen game win streak for the Sounders would tie us with the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and AS Monaco, who each managed an equal win streak. I would note that the Sounders doing it would be even more impressive given the comparative parity of the MLS to La Liga and Ligue 1.
As I said above, I think it is a lofty goal that is unlikely to happen for the Sounders. Could it happen? Absolutely. I can't wait to see.
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Seattle Extinguish Fire 4-2
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
This week Brian Schmetzer let out that he is eyeing a very high bar for the start of this season: Starting this season with a 10-0 run. It certainly would be something amazing if the Sounders managed to do it. And Saturday in Chicago was another step on that path, matching their best start ever from their first MLS season, 2009.
While the match ended with a 4-2 Sounders win, it could easily have ended 7-6. Lots of dangerous shots for both sides with both goalkeepers playing well. Ousted had a few notable saves and Frei had two which actually made me say 'wow.'
I could focus on the delightful goals the Sounders scored but I'll be honest. It was our defense which held my attention this game. Chicago had 25 shots during the game, 12 of them on target. The Sounders defense had a few poor moments and looked relatively porous. As surgical and threatening as the Sounders look on the ball offensively, and as easy as it is to feel we are impervious and unbeatable... watching this game makes me nervous for April when we travel to LAFC. How does this team do when faced with a powerfully offensive team? Can we hold them back? Can we out race them? I don't know.
That defensive nervousness was my core takeaway from the game. Seattle has an offensive package unlike anything we've ever had before. Scoring ten goals in the first three games is excellent. We have two players tied at 3 goals (Ruidiaz and Morris), competing for the golden boot in the league. I mean, the Sounders are very scary offensively. We can score from anywhere by any of our offensive players.
But other teams have to be looking at us and zeroing in on our defensive weakness; the chink in our armor. That is what would keep me up this week were I on the coaching staff for the Sounders. How do we strengthen our defenses?
I think every player on our defense had a few concerning plays against Chicago, but the one I noticed most was Svensson seemed a bit off. Even when we shifted to five in the back we didn't end up looking more defensively solid.
In the 72nd minute, Schmetzer pulled Lodeiro off and subbed on Panamanian center back, Roman Torres. This was a clear sign that we were settling in to defend our lead 3-1, as we shifted to a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 structure. I don't hate the strategy, we have three of the best CBs in the league. But it is not as convincing a tactic as I would hope. We looked just as vulnerable and perhaps more confused when the transition took place. It was twelve minutes later when Fabian Herbers managed to get on the loose ball in the box and bring Chicago up trail 2-3. Suddenly we had to be scared Chicago might find the third goal.
And look, I'm not saying anything the team doesn't already know. Schmetzer himself in his postgame interview called out Frei's big performance because "they could have scored a few more." I trust in the coaching staff to look at the replay footage and figure out who messed up and how. And I expect the next two weeks will be a lot of defensive drills, and further tinkering with the five in the back.
Don't let all this defense focus make you feel bad about our win. We are 3-0 so far in the season. We have a goal differential of +7. We have scored with five different players so far this season. We are having a hell of a start to the season and the Sounders are showing everyone who we are.
The Good
- Rodriguez is a man on a mission. He has been tagged as a DP by the club and he wants to show us all what he is capable of when fully healthy.
- Lodeiro looked great and was all over the field. He had a fortuitous bounce from his penalty kick, but a goal is a goal.
- Morris continues to be goal dangerous, and he scored one which could be voted as goal of the week.
- Raul Ruidiaz didn't have a lot of time on the ball, but that's not a bad thing. He continues to keep defenders occupied and help maneuver formations to expose them. Combine that with his current goal scoring streak and he's doing great.
- Brad Smith looked strong offensively, pairing excellently with Rodriguez.
- Stefan Frei says the Keeper of the Year award doesn't matter to him, and that's a reasonable response to not getting it last year. But I contend that him not getting it last year has left him more determined to be undeniably great this season.
The Bad
- Our two CDMs, Gustav Svensson and Cristian Roldan didn't look like themselves, they seemed sluggish and off.
- Roman Torres didn't look great when he subbed on.
- Bastian Schweinsteiger didn't have a good game.
- Chicago Fire attendance was depressingly abysmal.
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On Seattle versus Portland
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
Credit to Mike Donovan for his research, turning up two iconic news clippings. Reported in the Oregonian on Nov. 29, 1907 is the first mention he could find of Seattle and Portland facing off in soccer.
Here's the Seattle newspaper reporting on the same match, thanks to Frank MacDonald for sharing.
The second clipping Mike turned up this clipping which is the first match between the two rivals played in Multnomah Stadium (which is what we know today as Providence Park) from March 1929.
While those go much further back, it's 1975 which we regard as the modern era of the Seattle vs. Portland rivalry. It was won by Seattle thanks to a Jimmy Gabriel penalty. Here's the newspaper reporting on it as shared by Frank MacDonald on Twitter.
This rivalry truly is something special here in the US, but don't take my word for it. Here's Eli Mengem, host of Copa90's Derby Days series, sharing his thoughts and experience as he experiences Seattle at Portland a few years ago.
In preparation of today's match, the Sounders produced this video featuring the narration of ex-Sounder DeAndre Yedlin. It gives me goosebumps every time I watch it.
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Let's Talk About the Sounders
This post was originally published on my soccer blog at FirstTou.ch, it is being preserved here as I shut that site down.
The Sounders have started this season off under the looming specter of injuries, a bit of bad luck and repeated poor decision making by players who should definitely know better. There are fans who are going to be mounting a #GarthOut or a #SchmetzerOut campaign. I'm not going to be doing that yet, and to explain why. Let's dive in on what's been going on this season thus far.
First off, it's important to note, with few exceptions - the Sounders are terrible in March.
As Frank says, who knows why this is. Out of a possible 84 points in March, the team has only taken 32 during their MLS history. Not good. In fact, this isn't even our first time starting the season 0-3, something we did as recently as 2016. A season which ended rather well for us, you might recall.
This season feels especially maddening as we went into the offseason having our asses handed to us in the painful MLS cup. And now, with mostly the same squad, we sit at the bottom of the west. How did we go from making the MLS Cup to struggling to finish a goal? We built our plan around this being a comeback season for Jordan Morris, who suffered a season ending injury right out of the gate. Our plans in disarray and our lack of depth up top suddenly highly problematic.
As we learned in our drubbing of a defeat in Toronto, we reached the MLS cup last season largely thanks to the comparative weakness of the western conference. And now we're faced with looking at a depleted, and aging, roster.
Garth spoke in vague terms of his plans recently. That they are looking for immediate reinforcements and looking to sign a new DP in the summer transfer window. This feels maddening to many fans because they ask "Why aren't we signing a DP now?" or "Why haven't we already signed the new DP?" And the answer is, because business. Garth is exceptional as a GM because he does a great job finding greater value in the signings we make. Signing a player isn't as simple as picking up a bottle of milk at the corner store. It requires much more than that.
This, of course, is of little consolation to Sounders fans facing our 0-3 start while we see the LA Galaxy finally deliver on the long rumored Zlatan signing. That, combined with his performance off the bench this weekend, has left many of us with intense DP jealousy. Fans should keep in mind that signing had been rumored for literally years. It wasn't something which just suddenly happened. It took the LA Galaxy, Man. United, and most of all Zlatan - deciding to make it happen together.
Soccer is a business mostly about the future, and less about the now. Signings are not temporary patches needed for one moment or one game - they are investments which have to continue to deliver for seasons to come while not upsetting the mixture already existing in the locker room. As much as we want Garth to open the wallet, that isn't how a successful team does things.
The good news is that even without a DP-caliber signing until Summer, the Sounders do have the pieces to make progress and turn around from this depressing start. Injuries heal, meaning we'll soon see Ozzie and Victor, return to the lineup. And it is best for all of us if the team takes the time in bringing these players back - it is emphatically incorrect game theory to rush these guys back as we struggle now as compared to if it was the end of the season. Now is the safest time for us to struggle while we let our squad heal and be 100% ready to come back.
So with the squad being what it is and changes waiting to be seen, the other major thing to discuss is the decision making.
Three Sounders matches. Three red cards. Three poor decisions by Tony Alfaro, Clint Dempsey, Kelvin Leerdam. Three losses. Two of these players are leaders of the team, experienced players who have zero excuses for the brash decision which led to their individual red card.
I'm always highly critical of when a Sounders player gets a stupid red card. It is among the worst things they can do in my eyes. And Schmetzer spoke to it last night after the game. I think Sounders at Heart slightly overstates it with the headline of "Brian Schmetzer issues violent conduct ultimatum" but Schmetz's meaning was clear: It's something that has to stop. The team motto he's perpetuated since taking the helm of the club, "Next man forward" loses something when they are forced to replace a team member due to poor decision making rather than injury.
The truth is you can't frame a solid argument against the refs and these red cards. There is a small case for Dempsey, but the reality is while players are playing the other team they are also responsible for existing in the box the referee draws. It's one of the reasons Ozzie is so good as a physical player, he finds the lines with the ref and stays on them in terms of his physicality.
It is infuriating to see rules unevenly applied across the league. Referees are individuals and not a perfect system, but we've seen our players tapped on the face without a red card issued, or seeing Lodeiro repeatedly tossed and tripped and sent sprawling as the most fouled player in the league last season - with only a few yellow cards to show for it. We can't blame the 0-3 start on the refs, but it is fair to say they haven't done us any favors along the way thus far.
So with all of this said, should fans be demanding change in leadership? Or simply clamoring for some sort of change?
Garth has acknowledged we need help. It is now a question to see what deal he and the office staff can deliver. They are looking for a DP caliber signing in the summer, and I think it is safe to say that if we have another DP signing fall through (as we did last season) that I, and many others, will be immensely frustrated and disappointed. But until that happens, I trust in Garth and his system.
I honestly don't have a major problem with how Schmetz has coached this season. I've agreed with almost all of his line ups and subs given the players available to him. If he can settle the squad and stop this rash of red cards then I believe the team will turn around.
Lastly is the players. Cristian Roldan spoke last night after the game taking ownership on the players for the loss that they just aren't delivering despite not feeling significantly outplayed. Lodeiro said “We need to train harder, we need to practice better. We’ve been in situations like this before, and we know what we need to actually do to get out of this. We’re going to do it.” Our squad has talent and should not be sitting at the bottom of the west, but here we are. The players at the end of the day have to score goals and no one else is able to make that happen.
The good news, I believe change is coming on all the axes relevant to this discussion. It might take time and it might be that we limp into July and the summer transfer window, but I believe we'll notch a win soon and then we will build on that as players begin returning to our roster.
Remember: It's always darkest before the dawn... or something similarly motivational as we sit at 0-3. Hang in there fans.
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