Slam Dunk
Pulled from this post on Bluesky.
But the real treasure is this picture in the replies, with poorly photoshopped John Maynard Keynes dunking on Robert Lucas.
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In November, US Economy saw prices fall for the first time since April 2020
Will be curious to see if it is a trend or an aberration. If the prices resume moving upwards, it is a very bad sign.
After three-plus years of prices steadily — and sometimes sharply — increasing month after month after month, they fell in November.
[...]
November's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a comprehensive measure of prices US households pay for goods and services, declined 0.1% from the month before, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.6%.
It's the first time the headline PCE index decreased on a monthly basis since the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Annually, it's a marked improvement from a 2.9% rate in October and the 40-year high of 7.1% notched in June 2022.
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North Koreans struggling to defect since Covid 19 began
If you had asked me to guess how many people defected from North Korea to South Korea each year, I would have guessed maybe a hundred or two hundred. Which, as it turns out, is currently an overestimate - however, would be a gross underestimate for the period of 2001 to 2019 where the country tracked at least 1,000 defectors each year. In 2020, they got 227, 2021 was 62 and 2022 was 67.
I have to assume this ties to them being on close to lockdown for fighting Covid 19, but who knows.
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There was a surge in road deaths during Covid, why?
From the Abstract:
Despite a brief reduction during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of people killed in motor vehicle crashes in the United States surged in 2020 to its highest level in over a decade. The purpose of the research reported here is to advance the understanding of how safety on U.S. roads changed during the pandemic, beyond its initial months, by comparing the involvement of specific crash-, vehicle-, and driver-related factors in fatal crashes during the eight-month period of May through December 2020 to what would have been expected had the pandemic not occurred and pre-pandemic trends continued. [...] Overall, the number of traffic fatalities in 2020 was 2,570 (7.1%) more than expected based on pre-pandemic trends. However, a sharp decrease in traffic fatalities in March and April 2020 partially offset an even larger increase later in the year. During the eight-month period of May through December 2020, the number of traffic fatalities was 3,083 (12.1%) more than expected.
The real takeaway:
The increase in traffic fatalities was not uniform across crash-, vehicle-, and driver-related factors. Scenarios present in greater than expected numbers in fatal crashes in 2020 included evening and late-night hours, speeding drivers, drivers with illegal alcohol levels, drivers without valid licenses, drivers of older vehicles, drivers of vehicles registered to other people, crash involvement and deaths of teens and young adults, and deaths of vehicle occupants not wearing seatbelts. In contrast, several crash types followed pre-pandemic trends (e.g., crashes in the middle of the day; crash involvements of drivers with valid licenses; pedestrian fatalities), and a few decreased (e.g., crashes of elderly drivers; crashes during typical morning commute hours).
So what we saw was an increase in deaths in the middle of the night, midday crashes held, and crashes by elderly or in the morning.
I am curious to find out any data relating to crashes based on economic situations. I suspect we would find workers of lower incomes suffered much of the reported spikes.
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Data shows omicron booster kept seniors out of hospitals
Not that this will change anyone's mind which has been made up, but it is good to see ongoing study and evaluation regarding effectiveness.
In the first real-world test of vaccine boosters specially designed to protect against the omicron variant, Israeli researchers have found that people 65 and over who got an updated jab were 81% less likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than those who did not.
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Combo rapid tests are a thing in Europe, the US needs them too
Marginal Revolution, the blog I'm linking to, brought these to my attention. He's a conservative economist blogger. I don't always agree with him but I value the varied insights in my feeds. And in this case, I 100% agree with him that the FDA needs to get off its butt and approve these sort of tests given the current health climate.
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Neti pot usage 2x a day during covid infection shows signs it can limit seriousness of illness in high risk individuals
It's a fairly small sample size (79 people) but an interesting possible thing for people to do.
Seventy-nine high-risk participants were enrolled (mean [SD] age, 64 [8] years; 36 [46%] women; 71% Non-Hispanic White), with mean BMI 30.3. Analyzed by intention-to-treat, by day 28, COVID-19 symptoms resulted in one ED visit and no hospitalizations in 42 irrigating with alkalinization, one hospitalization of 37 in the povidone-iodine group, (1.27%) and no deaths. Of nearly three million CDC cases, 9.47% were known to be hospitalized, with an additional 1.5% mortality in those without hospitalization data. Age, sex, and percentage with pre-existing conditions did not significantly differ by exact binomial test from the CDC dataset, while reported race and hospitalization rate did. The total risk of hospitalization or death (11%) was 8.57 times that of enrolled nasal irrigation participants (SE = 2.74; P = .006). Sixty-two participants completed daily surveys (78%), averaging 1.8 irrigations/day. Eleven reported irrigation-related complaints and four discontinued use. Symptom resolution was more likely for those reporting twice daily irrigation (X2 = 8.728, P = .0031) regardless of additive.
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Got my the new Booster
My 2nd booster, the newly approved Pfizer one. Six hours after taking it I feel exhausted. It might have been the rough week at work, or it might be the shot. We'll see how I feel in the morning.
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Dr. Fauci announces intention to step down in December 2022
Fauci said in a statement on Monday that he will leave both his post as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), as well as that of top medical adviser to President Joe Biden, to “pursue the next phase” of his career.
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"Effectiveness of vaccination mandates in improving uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the USA"
Medical study found on thelancet.com looks at how effective mandates were in getting people to get vaccinated. The following comes from their conclusion:
First, abundant evidence shows that school-entry mandates have been highly effective in improving uptake of childhood vaccines. Second, the current evidence regarding the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in adults is sufficient to support mandates. Third, because of distinctive implementation challenges, the effectiveness of adult COVID-19 vaccination mandates in increasing vaccination uptake might be lower than the very high effectiveness of school-entry mandates observed for other vaccinations in the past. Therefore, mandate policies cannot be the only approach, especially given the ongoing legal uncertainties surrounding them. Fourth, COVID-19 vaccine requirements will probably be most effective when enforced by employers and educational institutions. Fifth, consideration of school-entry mandates should follow review of real-world safety data and full licensure of the vaccines for children, which could come as soon as the start of the 2022–23 school year.
Finally, active surveillance for adverse events following immunisation and clear, sophisticated communication of findings to the public are essential for effective vaccination policies, including mandates. Imposing mandates does not remove the need for effective messaging to overcome vaccine hesitancy. Giving appropriate emphasis to the major headline of the accreting vaccine safety studies—the vaccines are indeed safe—can create more fertile soil for vaccination mandates to take root.
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Covid Negative - so far
So the reason for my expectation of decreased posting over the weekend was because I was traveling and spending time with family. As it turns out, only Sunday and Monday were really affected. Sunday was the final day with family and also I was just feeling exhausted from the go-go-go of it. Monday we had an early flight home and then I just vegged out and enjoyed my last day off of work.
Since I got Covid last time I traveled, I'm taking precautions and staying home and not going into the office right away. We took a test as soon as we got home and then I just took another today. Both are still showing negative. Which is what I expect and hope for, I don't feel any symptoms. But, want to be sure and not cause any sort of office outbreak. So, I will continue to be patient.
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"New studies bolster theory coronavirus emerged from the wild"
The research, published online Tuesday by the journal Science, shows that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was likely the early epicenter of the scourge that has now killed nearly 6.4 million people around the world. Scientists conclude that the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, likely spilled from animals into people two separate times.
“All this evidence tells us the same thing: It points right to this particular market in the middle of Wuhan,” said Kristian Andersen a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research and coauthor of one of the studies. “I was quite convinced of the lab leak myself until we dove into this very carefully and looked at it much closer.”
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"Is the Bottom Quartile Already in Recession?"
I heard on a radio interview that spending by the bottom quartile is way down in 2022, while it is holding up merrily for the upper two quartiles. My mind jumped to the thesis:
“Hmm, the bottom quartile probably (proportionately) felt the benefit of the three COVID stimulus packages more, plus they would have benefited more, proportionately, from the enhanced 2020-2021 unemployment benefits, which (I gathered from anecdotal observations) often paid them more for staying home than they used to receive for working. But…by 2022, all that extra money may be running out.”
The data is far from conclusive. But it might be time to re-think the economy as a monolith in my humble and non-economicist opinion.
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A list of articles on Loneliness
This is a link to a page which links to five different articles about loneliness in the modern era, some were written during Covid, and some were written well before. Definitely some insight to be gained from them as we all could do with a better understanding of loneliness and how we do, and can, process it.
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What Is Monkeypox and Should We Be Worried About It?
I didn't know anything about the disease. This is a very top level Q&A that asks the main questions people wonder about and gives no-nonsense answers. There is still much we don't know about MonkeyPox, but it does not appear to be the next Covid.
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Antivaxxers Want You To Believe Vaccines Don't Work Against the Delta Variant. They're Wrong.
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The verdict is in: No one pandemics like Seattle
The news this past week that Seattle has become the "most vaccinated city" — the first of the 30 largest U.S. metros to reach 70% fully vaxxed — is just the capper to a curious 16-month odyssey. We started out as Ground Zero for an infectious disease outbreak, but then watched as it took off and slammed everywhere else much harder than it ever did here.
As exciting as that is, this is the most exciting for me:
On Friday, Seattle reported just four new cases. How have we, mostly, escaped?
The article then goes to ask if the Seattle Freeze way of life helped us beat the pandemic because we all hate gathering in groups already.
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Wednesday is my Vaxx day and I cannot wait. I've held off keeping my head buzzed for a few weeks in preparation of going and getting a proper haircut. I also promised the wife that we'd get our nails done, and most of all - go out and get Dim Sum to celebrate re-entering the world.
Obviously we will still take precautions with masks, etc. But to know we are fully vaccinated will allow us to do things we haven't done in over year once again.
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Brazil is getting vaccines from China
Which is good, they need them. I was speaking with a friend in Sao Paulo yesterday and she was telling me how bad it has gotten there. They have more daily cases than we have here in the US, and we have 1.5x their population. They still aren't as bad as the US was during it's peak, but that is still a bad place for them to be.
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This weekend flew by. Absolutely flew by. I played D&D on Friday. Saturday was coding, running a few errands, and I did a little bit of work out in the garage to fight back the ever growing mess. Today was soccer, then some more errands, some coding, dinner, and tv. And just like that, tomorrow I'm back at work. Well, working from home.
It's wild to realize I've been working from home for over a year. This December I mark ten years at Wizards of the Coast, and now over 10% of that time will have been me working from home. Hopefully we are back in the physical office in the next few months. Working from home has been interesting, but I am missing my coworkers and spending more time with people.
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