"Can BRICS Take On The West"
The article itself is not particularly a must-read, but it did remind me of a conversation a few years ago. Coming out of COVID, a family member was lamenting global politics and how they were worried China was about to take the US economy. I had to talk them into understanding that that isn't something that just happens and China, despite it's importance to the US, isn't in a position to just do it.
The press' vilification of both China and Russia as enemies of the US don't do enough to actually explain how things work. And the fact that now, you have this growing alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, as well as now Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, shows truly how powerful the US is politically. On paper, population-wise and according to the news, for oil and other things the US is "dependent" on, this alliance would seem terrifying.
It's undoubtedly something the US cares about politically, but also, there's a reason it isn't headline news - yet.
The expanded BRICS is indeed a diverse bunch. It includes a Marxist-Leninist superpower and a revanchist authoritarian state. It includes the world's biggest democracy as well as Latin America's largest. New members include countries under the U.S. security umbrella and countries under U.S. sanctions. Prospective members could even include NATO countries such as Turkey and global pariahs such as North Korea and Syria.
The West, when it pays attention to BRICS at all, tends to dismiss the grouping as an incoherent grab bag. But there is a common thread, as durable as that behind the Bandung Conference in 1955 that kick-started the global south's efforts to create a brave new world.
Outside of Washington, and the G-7 and the European Union, it is hard to appreciate just how much resentment there is of Western hypocrisy and hegemony, all mortar helping to bond the loose membership of BRICS. That has become especially evident over issues such as the conflict in the Middle East, the hyperweaponization of U.S. sanctions, and the outsized cost for middle-income countries of the dollar's exorbitant privilege.
"It is not a cohesive bloc, but it is a cohesive message, about the desire for an alternate global order, and it is coming from sizable economies," said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution.
|
2024 is going to be the year of elections
Obviously the US election will be a major item, but India as well as Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and more than 40 others means there's going to be a lot of politics going on this year, and the transitions all taking place at once is going to be chaotic as hell.
2024 is the year of a rare planetary alignment. The world’s biggest democracy, which has parliamentary elections every five years, will go to the polls within months of the world’s second-biggest democracy, which has a presidential vote every four years. India and the United States join three other of the world’s six biggest democracies—Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh—in what will be the year that the greatest number of people in history vote.
|
Navalny located in Siberian penal colony
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was located in a penal colony in Russia's far north, his team said Monday, after a span of nearly three weeks when the imprisoned dissident politician's whereabouts were not known to his aides, lawyers and family.
"His lawyer visited him today. Alexey is doing well," Navalny's spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh, said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
Yarmysh added that he is being kept in a prison in the town of Kharp, in the Yamalo-Nenetsk region more than 1,000 miles northeast of Moscow, a region notorious for severe winters and the site of some of the harshest camps of the Soviet gulag system.
|
There was a diplomatic network between Australia, India, Japan and the United States
The "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" originally launched in 2007, it fell apart in 2008 when Australia removed itself. It was reborn in 2017 under Trump for purposes of countering China's growing influence.
I don't recall hearing about it before, it came up in an article discussing the U.S.-India relations, so I went and looked it up.
|
"US vetoes UN resolution calling for Gaza ceasefire"
Sadly unsurprised by this. Sick at the further evidence that we're the bad guys to millions upon millions of people.
The U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution Friday calling for a ceasefire to the fighting in Gaza. The U.S. and Israel have opposed calls for a ceasefire, saying it would strengthen Hamas.
The vote was delayed for several hours over worries the U.S. would veto it. Diplomats from several Arab nations met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to try to convince the U.S. to abstain from voting.
As a permanent member of the council, the U.S. has veto power, and had signaled it planned to block the resolution. The U.K. abstained from the vote, while the 13 other members of the council voted for it.
|
"Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash"
Oh... Yes... I'm sure it was an accident.
|
Ukraine has recaptured half of the territory taken by Russia according to Blinken
"It's already taken back about 50% of what was initially seized," Blinken said in an interview to CNN on Sunday.
"These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We're still looking I think at several months."
Hopes that Ukraine could quickly clear Moscow's forces from its territory following the launch of a summer counteroffensive are fading as Kyiv's troops struggle to breach heavily entrenched Russian positions in the country's south and east.
|
"Inflation in G20 Countries"
The Worst (> 9%)
- Argentina 109%
- Turkey 43.7%
The Kinda Bad (6-8.9%)
- United Kingdom 8.7%
- Italy 8.2%
- Germany 7.2%
- Australia 7%
- Euro Area 7%
- South Africa 6.8%
- Mexico 6.3%
The Middle (4-5.9%)
- France 5.9%
- Singapore 5.7%
- Netherlands 5.2%
- United States 4.9%
- India 4.7%
- Canada 4.4%
- Indonesia 4.3%
- Brazil 4.2%
- Spain 4.1%
The Best (1-3.9%)
- South Korea 3.7%
- Japan 3.5%
- Saudi Arabia 2.7%
- Switzerland 2.6%
- Russia 2.3%
The Liar
- China 0.1%
|
With G7 in Japan, China hosts summit with central asia neighbors
With G-7 leaders meeting in Japan, China kick-started its first-ever Central Asia summit on Thursday. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are all in attendance for the two-day event. Leaders met one-on-one with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday before group discussions on Friday. According to the Chinese foreign ministry, this is the first major diplomatic event China has hosted this year.
...
China and Central Asia have long been vital partners on the global stage. In 2013, Beijing launched its trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan and has since spent billions of dollars on transportation and infrastructure in the region. China is Central Asia’s largest trading partner. Last year, trade reached a record high of $70 billion, including $31 billion with Kazakhstan alone. This year is proving to be no different; already, China and Central Asian nations have conducted more than $24.8 billion in trade. Just as Central Asia relies on Chinese trade and investment, Beijing depends on Central Asia for key resources. Many Chinese cities rely on natural gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and oil from Kazakhstan.
If you had asked me how much trade China would get from these neighbors, I wouldn't have guessed it was that high. Though, it is notable that this is still a fraction of China's trade with other countries. For example, according to ustr.gov:
U.S. goods and services trade with China totaled an estimated $615.2 billion in 2020. Exports were $164.9 billion; imports were $450.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $285.5 billion in 2020.
China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $559.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2020. Goods exports totaled $124.5 billion; goods imports totaled $434.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $310.3 billion in 2020.
|
Putin's had a bad year
Pulled the below excerpt from the Axios newsletter, but I link to the full article it comes from. This is a good review and reminder that Vladimir Putin has had a really shitty year. (One of the many he deserves.) Unfortunately his misfortune also drags down millions of other people.
With Friday marking one year of the war in Ukraine, the list of assumptions Moscow got wrong is long — and growing, Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes:
- Putin thought Kyiv would fall. But Volodymyr Zelensky remains Ukraine's president and continues to welcome world leaders, including President Biden this week.
- Putin thought Russia would overpower a weak Ukrainian force. But Russian troops weren't ready to fight what turned out to be a strong and resilient Ukrainian force.
- Russia ended up needing reinforcements on the battlefield — which Putin also had failed to anticipate.
- Putin bet that the West wouldn't stick with Ukraine. But the U.S. and Europe's resolve has remained unwavering.
Why it matters: The war has been a catastrophe for Ukraine and a crisis for the globe — making the world a more unstable place since Russia invaded its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022.
- Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are dead. Countless buildings have been destroyed. Tens of thousands of troops have been killed or seriously wounded on each side, AP reports.
- The invasion shattered European security, redrew nations' relations and frayed the tightly woven global economy.
|
New Zealand Prime Minister's Resignation gets outsized coverage
All the coverage of the Prime Minister of New Zealand resigning seems a bit excessive. Not that it doesn't deserve news, but I it feels like we're covering the retiring of Merkel all over again. New Zealand is not exactly a world power. If it were a US state it would be squeezed between South Carolina and Alabama ranked by population, and if we ranked it by GDP, it would be 30th behind Utah. Do you think we'd be covering the stepping down of those governors with as much fervor?
Sure, it would get news largely driven by partisan framings of who to replace, how this affects the two-party power balance, etc. But I wouldn't see a dozen pieces asking "what does this mean?"
|
Turkish election this year will be very important
Among the many general elections of international consequence to watch this year, Nigeria’s, scheduled for February will be by far the largest; Pakistan’s, due by October, will probably be the loudest. But the most important will unquestionably take place on June 18, when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to stretch his rule over Turkey into a third decade.
I have to question of Erdogan will step down or allow a free election. We'll see.
|
Article from 1980 about Viktor Belenko, who defected with a MiG to the States
Although the freedom and responsibility given to sailors aboard the aircraft carrier surprised Belenko, something else stunned him even more—that sailors not only had a choice of food, but that they could eat as much as they wanted. He suspected another ruse and decided to test the system. Along with his CIA guides, Belenko walked through the self-service line, filling his dinner plate. He then found a table and sat down to eat. Then suddenly he jumped up and ran through the line again. When no one paid him any attention he filled up another dinner plate and returned to the table.
I am reminded of a time back in the 90s when I was a kid, probably 10-12ish. I was at a Golden Corral restaurant. I watched as a family came in with a kid who looked a few years older than me, probably a teenager. He looked around in awe at the giant buffet.
"Wow! There is so much!" He exclaimed as he rushed off. I overheard the adults talking, he was adopted from Russia, and they had just gotten off their flight back, so this was his first American outing.
|
Jon Stewart talks with Safi Rauf about how America is failing Afghanistan
I listened to the podcast (mostly, not quite finished), but found the episode fantastic and eye opening. I was familiar with the issues for Afghanistan translators and others who worked with us while we ran the country, but some of the numbers discussed are eye opening. We've allowed 123 (I think that's the number they said) Afghani using the application process (which also costs almost $600, which is more than the annual salary for someone in Afghanistan.)
But, when compared to the process done for Cuba, Vietnam, and Iraq, it is laughable how bad it is. But then, comparing it to Ukraine, a current example, where they waived the fee and processed half a million applications in a few months - it's wildly openly racist all because of the fear of one of them being a terrorist.
|
"Japan to push for Africa seat on the UN Security Council"
"Japan reiterates its determination to redress the historical injustice against Africa of not being represented through a permanent membership on the Security Council," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told the Tokyo International Conference on African Development in Tunis, Tunisia on Sunday.
|
The US gets caught with sock puppet social media against China and Russia
Not exactly surprising.
The data analyzed came from 146 Twitter accounts (which tweeted 299,566 times), 39 Facebook profiles, and 26 Instagram accounts, along with 16 Facebook pages and two Facebook groups. Some of the accounts were meant to appear like real people and used AI-generated profile pictures. Meta and Twitter didn’t specifically name any organizations or people behind the campaigns but said their analysis led them to believe they originated in the US and Great Britain.
|
"Russia's Brutal Honesty Has Destroyed the West's Appeasers"
It bears reminding that there is a war in Ukraine. The larger press coverage has moved on to some extent, but Russia continues to invade and deny the sanctity of Ukraine's borders. The excerpt below refers to a video a survivor of Mariupol provided them, the video is not in the article but speaks to the blantant acts of Russia during this assault.
I'm forced to wonder, at what point are other countries responsible for allowing this to continue while acts like this take place, ignoring the global laws regarding conflicts? Yes, the threat of nukes is real, but it is something which is solvable.
What makes the video so chilling wasn’t just the fact that targeting civilians is a war crime. It’s that the clip bears the unmistakable logo of RT, the Russian channel that started off in 2005 as a mostly benign attempt to improve Russia’s international image and ended up as a domestic disinformation bullhorn. The video’s unequivocal message: This is what we’re doing in Ukraine, and we’re not even going to pretend anything else.
|
"In Kenya, pending election results keep the nation in suspense"
I can certainly connect with the people of Kenya, the drawn out election process is a unique torture in this era of instant gratification.
It has been two days since voting ended in Kenya’s closely contested presidential election but for many citizens of the country, it feels like much longer.
“I am very anxious,” said Jacqueline Adhiambo, a 31-year-old resident of Eldoret, in western Kenya. “When I wake up in the middle of the night, I have to fight to desire to check my phone or turn on the television.”
Adhiambo, a voter registered in Eldoret, a stronghold of its most famous son, Deputy President and presidential candidate William Ruto, left her town for the capital, Nairobi, on the eve of the August 9 election. She was worried that violence could break out if Ruto lost to his closest competitor, Raila Odinga.
That line of thinking was critical to a 64 percent turnout in Tuesday’s election – a drop from almost 80 percent in 2017.
|
"The Gaza Strip Explained"
Israeli air raids have killed at least 31 people, including six children, across the Gaza Strip. More than 250 others have been wounded.
The Israeli attacks on Gaza have destroyed apartment buildings and struck refugee camps. The Palestinian armed group Islamic Jihad has responded by firing rockets towards Israel. According to Israeli media, most were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system and no serious injuries were reported.
This was a very informative article, because as an American I have heard of Gaza, but honestly have very little of the full picture of it. Seeing the article also reminded me of this segment where Conan O'Brien talks to protestors on the West Bank:
|
"US Navy deploys warships east of Taiwan ahead of Pelosi ‘trip’"
My RSS political feeds are awash in discussion around Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and the resulting saber rattling from China. Personally, I think it's very much the correct move for the US to make these moves to show China that it can't do to Taiwan what Russia is doing to Ukraine.
I will be surprised if it escalates. China is seeing what the economic sanctions are doing to Russia and while they are much much healthier economically than Russia, it will still be a massive impact even aside from the costs of an actual war.
We'll see.
|
Chief of Britain’s intelligence service said that Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine was likely to “run out of steam” soon
|
In Europe's move away from Russian gas, Africa is poised to be the big winner
This article highlights that African countries are using this leverage (rightly so) to demand a better bit of terms from global lenders to enable them to continue to build up their energy infrastructures if they are now going to be providing more to the European market.
As Europe scrambles for energy supplies, observers and Africans themselves are denouncing what they see as energy hypocrisy, considering that most African countries live under regular power shortages and are severely impacted by climate change. African governments have sought to develop new fossil fuel projects to meet local needs, but Western governments have demanded that multilateral lenders such as the World Bank stop funding those projects to reduce global carbon emissions.
“Our countries cannot achieve an energy transition and abandon the polluting patterns of the industrialized countries without a viable, fair, and equitable alternative,” Senegalese President Macky Sall said in a defiant speech at last year’s meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. “Stopping funding for the gas sector … would be a major obstacle.”
|
